Thursday 12th April 2018 l 2pm – 3pm l SMART, Bldg 6, Room 105. Presented by Dr Sarah Dunn.
Natural hazards have the potential to cause large scale impacts and disruption to all countries. If these events occur in highly populated areas the impacts can be catastrophic.
The severity and lasting impact of these hazards are often linked to the resilience of critical infrastructure systems (including water distribution networks, electrical systems and transportation networks) which underpin our communities and support social and economic development.
Our changing climate is predicted to either increase the frequency or intensity of many extreme weather events, potentially creating greater disruption to our infrastructure systems.
In this Seminar, Dr Dunn will present recent research which aims to transform tradition weather forecasts into infrastructure damage forecasts. This is achieved within a modified catastrophe risk modelling framework, by coupling high resolution weather forecasts with empirical fragility curves and an extensive network data set. This framework can be used to forecast infrastructure damage, and resulting consequences, for current climate conditions, or could be coupled with a climate model to give future projections.
Dr Dunn will apply this methodology to the prediction of power outages within the UK for forecast wind storms and will also show how it can be applied to other systems and hazards.